Jerry Resigns Anthony Spencer: Impact on the Draft?

Anthony Spencer coming back to Dallas on the rebound.

In a blog back in March, I said to look for Jerry Jones to resign Anthony Spencer on the cheap and now he has. It’s a one year deal that can be worth $3.5 million for Spencer. In that previous blog, I pointed out how Jerry “fills needs” so he can go on a unrestricted drafting binge.

The Jerry Jones Dictionary:
“To fill needs”– Sign players at key position needs prior to the draft, who are recovering from major injuries and therefore come cheap. Often players 30 years old or over (considered past prime in NFL). Occasionally possess known significant character deficiencies that make other teams label them as high risk. In the view of some fans, a tactic implemented by the self indulgent owner to save money and justify an absence of a real drafting strategy.

Example: “After his major knee surgery, and since no one else would sign him, I signed the 30 year old Anthony Spencer for a fraction of what he made last season so that I can now draft yet another pass receiver, or whatever I happen to desire at the time, and not have to be bothered with drafting a real 4-3 type defensive end.”

Heading into the 2014 draft in May, picking up a quality DE has been ranked as a high priority for Dallas by about any NFL draft analyst you may read. Big shoes to be filled with Ware gone to the Broncos.

But now that they have Spencer back, should Jerry consider the DE position all taken care of? While I don’t see this one year deal as a bad investment, I think it would be a mistake to assume that Spencer will be all they need at DE in 2014. Having said that, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Jerry not address the DE position in the draft by making a late round pick or not at all.

After all, it was Jerry who told us prior to the 2013 season that defensive line was a strength for the team with Ratliff returning from injury and Ware a sure bet to adapt to DE. How that work out for us? Turned out Ratliff wasn’t ready to play and Ware never hit his stride as a DE in the 4-3 so Jerry was left signing any defensive linemen he could find. It was classic Jerry Jones and the results speak for themselves.

While many Dallas fans may feel reassured by the signing of A.S. and he is inexpensive, I don’t feel so good about it and here is why I’m concerned about Spencer next season.

My Concerns with Spencer:

1. Injury & Age: In week 2, Spencer injured his left knee which caused him to miss the entire season. He finished the season with just two tackles. At 30 years old he is attempting to recover from microfracture knee surgery.

His agent said in September that he would be fully recovered by February 2014 but recently it’s reported that he hopes to be available by preseason in July. He is jogging now. Some fans point out that he is rehabbing at Valley Ranch so by signing him, Jerry feels good about progress. But Spencer took a visit to the East rival Giants and Redskins who didn’t offer a contract. An indication those teams didn’t feel good about it.

I think the fact is at this point, no one really knows when Spencer will be able to return to action or how his knee will hold up to 16 games in the trenches as a hand on the ground DE. Playing DE is even tougher on the body than OLB and the departed Ware indicated that was indeed the case.

2. Position Change: For 6 years, Spencer has played OLB in a 3-4 defense. He had one very good season that being in 2012 a contract season. (funny how that goes right) Now he is being asked to convert to DE at 30 years old. It’s fair to say that during his career, Spencer has been a more effective run defender than pass rusher. He was often criticized for a lack of sack production as he reached double digit sacks only once in his career.

Marinelli’s 4-3 defense is about getting after the QB and they need a DE who can provide a significant pass rush. Playing OLB is more about playing in space while playing DE, is more about playing in the trenches. Even if Spencer’s knee holds up, I’m not convinced he is an ideal fit at defensive end in this 4-3 defense. Believe it when I see it.

Final Take:
Fans can debate whether bringing Spencer back was a smart move or not and time will tell but we can all agree Dallas must get younger on their defensive line. Attempting to squeeze another year out of a banged up veteran is just the Jerry Jones “same old-same old” and as far as their defensive line goes, the future is now.

I’m convinced Jerry and Stephen need to draft a DE early like by the third round, or they may regret it.

Jerry & Stephen Can’t Afford to Draft “Best Available” This Time

Dumb & Dumber

Jerry & Stephen

Jerry and Stephen Jones, or “Dumb and Dumber” if you prefer, can’t afford to go into the 2014 NFL draft looking to draft the “best available” player in each round while pretending to address glaring needs in free agency. They have played that card before but the salary cap rule bending and restructured contracts are all catching up to them now.

But I warn Cowboy fans, they are approaching it this year just as they have in the past, by addressing needs prior to the draft so that Jerry and Stephen can impulsively indulge in their fantasy football league approach to drafting. By “addressing needs”, I mean they are signing players that would be considered NFL journey men or “camp bodies” to fill the roster at positions of need prior to the draft. See, it’s not actually addressing needs at all and we have seen them do it before.

Recently Stephen said, “To me, that’s what free agency is about. You certainly can’t build a football team around free agency, and I think you’re going in the wrong direction if you look at it that way,” he said. “What it hopefully does is fill glaring needs so that you can take the best player available. I think when you start reaching for a particular position you start to make mistakes.”

So far to fill glaring needs left by the departures of Ware and Hatcher, they signed defensive linemen Jeremy Mincey and Terrell McClain who have a combined 2 sacks in the past two NFL seasons. Both of those were Mincey’s.

Their big splash free agency signing was Henry Melton who is coming off a short 2013 season with the Bears after tearing his ACL. Melton (a pro bowler in 2012) appears to be a good pick up and figures to be an excellent fit in Rod Marinelli’s defense however, the fact is no one knows how he will play after that serious injury.

Jerry and Stephen may view it as all buttoned up at defensive tackle heading into the draft but I think it’s actually a little more fragile than they would have us believe. What if Melton isn’t really all healed up from his serious ACL injury? Jerry and Stephen may have covered themselves with a contract they can get out of easily but who will help that terrible defense then? Don’t fall for it again.

Last Year They were Counting on Rat
Last season Jerry told us DT Jay Ratliff would be ready to go and Jerry went on to not draft a single defensive lineman. We soon found out that Rat was not ready to go at all at least not for Dallas, as Rat (now known as Jeremiah) eventually went to the Bears and actually played against the Cowboys.

And there were plenty of red flags to suspect they shouldn’t put all of their eggs on Jeremiah Ratliff since he was over 30, coming off an injury, had an off field DUI issue, and basically stood toe to toe with Jerry in the locker room. Why couldn’t Jerry and Stephen see how it may go wrong?

Instead of drafting a defensive lineman, Jerry and Stephen made a “best available” pick of a TE in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft (Gavin Escobar) and went on to use him very little (only 9 catches, 134 yards in 2013) while being forced out of desperation, to sign defensive linemen off the couch during the season.

It’s not to say Escobar is not a talented TE but to say the two Jones failed to address major needs during the draft because they felt they had it all covered on the defensive line when they actually didn’t. And they are headed that same direction again based on those comments Stephen made.

Reality is, Jerry and Stephen didn’t have enough salary cap room in 2014, to fully address all their needs through free agency. So they must do it through the draft, to avoid scrambling to sign guys during the season who thought their NFL careers were over.

Last year it was 36 year old guard Brian Waters who Jerry was forced to sign after failing to address their need for depth at guard, during the draft. Waters, once an outstanding guard, would only last for about 5 games as he is simply at the end of his career. As a team GM, sorry but that’s not proactively addressing needs, that’s just reacting by plugging bodies into a spot.

2014 DRAFT
Jerry and Stephen like to convince themselves, and unfortunately the fan base too, that all needs have been addressed so they are free to draft players that don’t really fill a particular need. But entering the 2014 draft in an era of salary cap restrictions, they simply don’t have that luxury any longer. While signing Melton was a start, there is still a need to pick up defensive tackles in the draft who can get into their rotation immediately.

They also need to draft a 4-3 DE to replace Ware but don’t be surprised if Jerry and Stephen tell us they already have Ware’s replacement on the roster. “Got it covered” we have heard them indicate before. Or even worse, announce they are going to resign 30 year old DE Anthony Spencer on the cheap, after his major knee surgery.

And don’t be shocked if they come out of the draft with yet another offensive toy for Jason Garrett that rarely gets used. When Jerry and Stephen get in the draft, they like to go with their instincts instead of addressing needs and that should be a concern for all Cowboy fans.

In the NFL draft, Jerry is like Floyd in “Dumb and Dumber’, “We don’t usually pick up hitchhikers. But I’m-a gonna go with my instincts on this one. Saddle up, partner!”

The Kind of Defensive Tackle Coordinator Rod Marinelli Looks For

Rod Marinelli was named the Cowboys new defensive coordinator at the end of the season, a season which saw the Cowboys defense hit some new lows as they tried to adapt to the Tampa 2 version of the 4-3 defense. Marinelli was the Defensive Coordinator with the Bears (under Lovie Smith) from 2010-2012, where he coached the same defense Dallas runs now.

To fix the Dallas 4-3 defense, I’m convinced Dallas must draft a Warren Sapp type defensive tackle that can make things happen up front. Past decisions are often a good predictor of future decisions so with that in mind, I looked back to see if Marinelli drafted a defensive tackle during his time with the Bears.

In 2011, the Bears drafted DT Stephen Paea in the 2nd round. At the time, Marinelli described Paea as the “full package”.
“The first thing that jumped out at me was he fits our defense,” Marinelli said. “He’s a great penetrator. He’s got really good feet and that’s something you really look for in the down [linemen]. They’ve got to have movement and he can penetrate. He’s strong in there. He finishes plays really well.

At 6-1 and 303 pounds, Paea had a very productive college career and Marinelli was impressed with his non stop motor regardless of the game circumstances. Paea was very strong as he benched 225 for a ridiculous 49 times! Now that’s just crazy.

Looking at the approaching 2014 NFL draft, is there a DT prospect that Marinelli might have an eye that can help turn things around for the Cowboys struggling defense? A Stephen Paea type strong enough to play the one technique while quick enough to play the 3 tech. as well?

Yes, as a matter of fact, I believe DT Aaron Donald would be the kind of defensive lineman that could really be the piece Marinelli needs to get the Cowboys defense back on track. At the recent NFL combine, Donald displayed his outstanding speed, which really stands out on film, as he ran a 4.68/40 best among defensive tackles. He also displayed excellent strength benching 225 for 35 reps and while not as sick as the 49 reps Stephen Paea did in 2011, it was 2nd best among all defensive linemen. (Kaleb Ramsey of Boston College did 36).

At 6-1 and 285, Donald has similar size as Paea and like Paea, Donald had a very productive career in college football.

It was reported that Dallas was interviewing Donald at the Combine HERE. I believe Marinelli has got to be impressed with Donald and would love to have him on that defensive front next year.

In 2011, Paea was considered a first round pick however he injured an ankle at the Senior Bowl practices and that’s likely how the Bears were able to get him in the 2nd round. In 2014, Aaron Donald is healthy and ready to go so I don’t think they can wait until the 2nd round to get Donald who should be an excellent fit for their defense.

Aaron Donald is moving up the draft board after a solid Senior Bowl and Combine performance. Currently he is considered about a mid first round pick (ranked 22 overall by CBS sports) which is about where Dallas picks (16).

Coaching Changes for the Cowboys and Their Impact

Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.

This week the Cowboys hired former Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to take over play calling for the Cowboys. They also promoted defensive line coach Ron Marinelli to defensive coordinator and moved Monte Kiffin to a rather ambiguous role as mentor. Was he promoted or demoted?

What impact can be expected from these latest coaching moves from Jason Garrett and Jerry Jones?

Marinelli Promoted to Defensive Coordinator:
Based on his past record, I think moving Marinelli to defensive coordinator is a good move. Rod Marinelli did an outstanding job last year with the defensive line considering what he had to work with. The Cowboys were desperately bringing in guys off the street to play on the line and Marinelli managed to get a good effort from them. He was defensive coordinator for the Bears when Lovie Smith was the head coach and those defenses were very good at taking the ball away and creating turnovers.

Marinelli was promoted from defensive line coach to Bears defensive coordinator in 2010.
From 2010 to 2012, Marinelli’s defenses ranked ninth, seventeenth, and fifth.
In 2012, the Bears led the NFL in interceptions with 24, and led in takeaways with 44.

Recently Lovie Smith was named new head coach of the Buccaneers and I couldn’t help but wonder if he might give Marinelli a call to come help coach the defense. Promoting Marinelli to coordinator may have helped keep him in Dallas.

Scott Linehan Brought in to call Offensive Plays:
To be honest, my expectations for this move improving the offense next season are very low. I blogged last season that Callahan was terrible at calling plays and pointed out that Tim Brown warned us about Callahan HERE. So I do believe a change was needed. But in a way, no matter who calls the plays, Romo seems to change it at the line anyway.

Jason Garrett coached with Linehan when they were on the Dolphins staff and Garrett pointed out that they have very similar offensive philosophies which appears to be very true. Both love to pass the ball and abandon the run completely and I think that was a big problem with the offense last season. Just look at that debacle in the Packers game last year.

Last season Dallas finished 31st in rushing attempts in the NFL when they actually had a respectable 4.5 yards per attempt average.

Linehan was offensive coordinator for the Lions from 2009 through 2013. Similar to the Cowboys, the Lions ranked high in passing yards and attempts during those seasons, but were consistently toward the bottom in both rushing yards and rushing attempts.

In 2012, the Lions led the NFL in passing attempts with Dallas 3rd in passing attempts.
Last season the Lions ranked 5th in passing attempts with an average of 39.6 per game.

In 2012, The Lions set an NFL record with 740 pass attempts during the season (46.25 attempts per game), breaking a record that had stood for thirty years.

With Linehan calling the plays, I’m afraid Cowboy fans can expect more of the same with that being a lopsided offensive attack that passes much more than it runs. And I think in the end, that means we can expect similar results.

What I think the Cowboys could use is a play caller that commits more to the run and keeps Murray involved in the game. Last season they added Frederick at center who proved to be a good physical run blocker but too often, the offense depended on Romo and inexplicably abandoned the run.

That kind of pass heavy Dallas offense ultimately makes things more difficult for the Dallas defense as they are on the field longer. The poor defensive performance last season speaks for itself.

RECAP:
Provided the Cowboys add some talented defensive linemen through the draft, I think Marinelli as defensive coordinator will improve their defense next season. With Linehan bringing in his pass heavy offensive philosophy, unfortunately I don’t look for the Cowboys to get their much needed run game on track next season.